I’ve speculated that Microsoft is following the path of IBM in a number of ways. Larry Dignan and Jason Perlow now write that multiple customized versions of Vista might be requried for desktops.
Some reasons why Microsoft is going to have a hard time, or how MS is the old IBM :
It’s:
A company that became hugely successful based on a model.
A company that is locked into that model, but the industry is dyanamic and changes, in this case delivery of software, competing technologies and the decline of packaged applications and OS.
Growth to a big company through success and acquisitions bogs down decisions and development, especially when you are beat to death by meetings and committee’s.

Hampered by the rise of alternative technology like Ubuntu, Open Source and Mac’s, both of which are being accepted and liked both for the consumer and businesses.
Suffers the disdain of being Microsoft on a number of levels. Some for arrogance, some for bad technology (I got a blue screen of death on XP just this week), lack of innovation (DOS code still in Windows) and the general issue of everybody hates and shoots at number one. Believe me, IBM has had to defend against this for eons.
SaaS, the meteoric rise of Google, direct aim at Microsoft by Oracle, SAP and other companies who want a share of capitalism also contribute to this.
Some reasons it could be OK still:
More money in the bank than a lot of countries.
Pinning the SaaS label on some products even though it doesn’t fit the definition, but heck, I’m a pepper, he’s a pepper, she’s a pepper, wouldn’t you like to be a SaaS too? Perception is reality for some.
Legacy. Even IBM has old mainframes and SNA in a lot of places, so it exists, if it walks like a duck…..
How to get out of the conundrum
Re-invent yourself. I’m not Ballmer so it’s his job. IBM went from tabluators to computers, from mainframes to services, expanded the high margin software business, and most of all….hired Lou Gerstner to save the company.
To be fair, I’ll give Microsoft some credit, they are trying the gaming model which leads to entertainment control and the mobile market, but how much is this contributing to the bottom line? How much mind share does Ballmer give it?
What is Microsoft going to do? If I had that crystal ball, I’d have retired rich by now. My guess is muddle along and try to save the windows model as it’s market share erodes away. If this happens, it will be a top 5 firm for a while. The existing model is time limited. I point to the rise of Palm devices who were supplanted by blackberries, SNA which lost to IP, Wireless taking over from cabling.
Change is the only thing that stays the same.
Microsoft, your move…..or not.