After reading the reviews by Paul Kedrosky of the Wall Street Journal and Stephen Manes of Forbes.com both described what the introduction (and reaction) of Vista was. Use your own words, and I’ll put up some of theirs in a minute, but the key to this is the door to packaged application is closing. Conversely, the door to Software as a Service is opening. Vista is but a nail in the packaged app delivery model, mostly because the shortcomings of Microsoft exposed this.
First, Kedrosky states:
Ever since releasing the first major upgrade to its popular Windows operating system in more than five years, Microsoft’s stock has been on a record tear — downward. One more down day and we would have been tied at nine for the longest tumble in the company’s 20-year trading history.
So, what gives? In short, investors are increasingly skittish about Microsoft’s Vista. Late, horsepower-hungry, missing some promised features and getting indifferent reviews, the product is nowhere near the buzzmaker of its predecessors, Windows 95 and Windows XP. Analysts and investors are worried that the product is too little and too late, so much so that Vista won’t fuel the usual earnings-goosing upgrade cycle that such releases have in the past.
Here is the SaaS nail in the coffin:
In truth, Vista problems are just symptoms of a deeper Microsoft malaise. Monolithic software — bits in a shrink-wrapped box — is a dying business. It is being slayed by software sold as a service, by open source, and by ad-centric online software (i.e., Google).
What I like best was the IBM comparison, and note the sarcasm:
Meanwhile, Microsoft is trapped between Vista and a Google-created hard place. It is much like what happened to IBM years ago when Microsoft laid it low, with the company looking slow and the industry no longer afraid. Competitors now see Windows as a heavy weight around Microsoft’s neck, one that keeps the company safely occupied on a treadmill far from their own businesses. That is why the best news for them in the last few days came when Microsoft began talking up a new version of Windows set for 2009. Yeah, go for it guys, knock yourselves out.
Next, Manes is far more terse (emphasis mine) (I like that he agrees with me on how Vista blatantly copies Apple):
Windows Vista: more than five years in the making, more than 50 million lines of code. The result? A vista slightly more inspiring than the one over the town dump. The new slogan is: “The ‘Wow’ Starts Now,” and Microsoft touts new features, many filched shamelessly from Apple’s Macintosh. But as with every previous version, there’s no wow here, not even in ironic quotes. Vista is at best mildly annoying and at worst makes you want to rush to Redmond, Wash. and rip somebody’s liver out.
And this is hardly an endorsement (emphasis mine):
My recommendation: Don’t even consider updating an old machine to Vista, period. And unless you absolutely must, don’t buy a new one with Vista until the inevitable Service Pack 1 (a.k.a. Festival o’ Fixes) arrives to combat horrors as yet unknown.
I suggested to one Windows product manager that if the company were truly serious about security, Vista might offer a simple way to delete files securely and eliminate all traces of identity and passwords so you could safely pass the machine on or sell it years from now. His reply: “Does any other operating system do that?” That tells you all you need to know about Microsoft. The real slogan: “No innovation here.”
So it is not really about how bad Vista is, although it really seems to be, it is the obvious pointing to how late and burdensome the packaged app model is compared with the SaaS model of buying and installing software. In my dealings with the SaaS executives, partners and other companies, the key to this is that it is a disruptive technology. Hopefully, that will translate into benefits to the consumer and get us out of the anchor that packaged applications are to us.
I’ve often opined that Microsoft will face many turning points in their history similar to what IBM has faced. Reinventing yourself in the face of a technology shift or disruption, such as SaaS, or whither, or fade from relevance.
Ultimately, this exposes that SaaS, or some variation of that model is taking over…